Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 16 July, 2024
A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.
The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.
Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.
For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
| Taxon ID | 500359 |
| Scientific name | Ballantinia antipoda |
| Common name | Southern Shepherd’s Purse |
| Group | Dicotyledons |
| FFG status | Critically Endangered |
| EPBC status | Endangered |
Ballantinia antipoda is an obligate annual species and thus the maintenance of populations through time is completely dependent on the seed-crop of previous years stored in the thin layer of soil beneath the moss mat. Ballantinia antipoda usually germinates in winter and is in full flower by mid to late September, dying off as the moss mats dry out in late spring (Nevill and Camilleri 2010). The bryophytes act as regulating ‘sponges’ absorbing and retaining high concentrations of water during cooler months (Late July to early November) (assuming non-drought conditions), and then rapidly drying out over the warmer seasons when conditions are totally inhospitable for Ballantinia and other annual life-forms (Seidel 2004).
Southern Shepherd’s Purse or Ballantinia antipoda (Ballantinia) is a diminutive annual forb endemic to South-east Australia where it has been historically collected from 11 locations across central Victoria as well as the southern midlands of Tasmania. By the early 1980’s it was thought to be extinct due to habitat loss, but was ‘rediscovered’ growing is shallow soil moss mats on outcropping granite at high elevation on Mount Alexander near Harcourt in 1983 by Neville Scarlet of La Trobe University following systematic searches of all known historic locations in Victoria.
Little is known of the broad habitat requirements of Southern Shepherd’s Purse. Previous records indicated the species occurred in stony or rocky areas on the volcanic plains south-west of Melbourne (Werribee and Carisbrook), and low granite hills and mountains, including Mount Emu, Mount Cole, Mount Langi Ghiran and Mount Buangor, in western Victoria. In Tasmania, the species was reported from dry, stony sites and the banks of streams (Curtis and Morris 1975 as cited by Nevill and Camilleri 2010). At the remaining location on Mount Alexander, the species occurs on gently to steeply sloping granite rockplates, usually with an easterly or south-westerly aspect, where it grows on seasonally moist moss mats on a shallow soil layer, and occasionally growing directly in shallow soil pockets lacking moss mats. It is absent from moss mats growing on the deeper soils in depressions or cracks in rock faces. The sites are usually exposed, with only a light canopy cover from surrounding trees including Manna Gum Eucalyptus viminalis and Messmate Stringybark Eucalyptus’ (Nevill and Camilleri 2010).
No genetic risk information is currently available.
The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Southern Shepherd’s Purse in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.
No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.
Based on modelling data, Southern Shepherd’s Purse has an likelihood of being present of 78% in 50 years time with the management actions currently implemented on the ground. See the Potential actions for recovery table below for more details on these actions.
A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.
Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.
As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.
We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.
Species Forecast data has been integrated to determine which specific actions are contributing, or have the potential to contribute, to species persistence. Note: Only management activities that would contribute at least 1% Change in Suitable Habitat have been included in this table
| Action Stream | Action | Predicted CSH (ha) from most cost-effective actions | Predicted Forecast from most cost-effective actions | Predicted CSH (ha) from implemented actions | Predicted Forecast from implemented actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landscape | AllWeeds | 717 | 83.76 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Cats & Control Foxes & Control Rabbits | 87 | 79.01 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Non-woody Weeds | 609 | 83.00 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Grazing | 24 | 78.50 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Grazing & Weeds | 39 | 78.62 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Eastern Grey Kangaroo | 250 | 80.33 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Rabbits | 1352 | 87.84 | NA | NA |
| Population | translocation - reintroduction | NA | 35.64 | NA | NA |
| Population | translocation - supplementation | NA | 30.80 | NA | NA |
This table includes information on potential actions for species recovery that have been split into three different action groupings, or streams:
Landscape actions are actions that are undertaken ‘in the wild’ to benefit multiple species. These actions are often undertaken over large areas. Examples include control of pests, weed control, fire management and revegetation.Use SMP in NatureKit to explore locations where landscape actions will be most beneficial. SMP can help you plan the right actions in the right locations to benefit this species, and other species which can also benefit from the same actions in those locations.
Location actions are actions that are also undertaken ‘in the wild’ but are targeted at particular sites to improve the habitat for selected species. Examples include creation of artificial hollows and supplementary planting of food source plants.
Population actions are actions that are targeted toward the population(s) of a particular species to increase their numbers. These actions may be undertaken ‘in the wild’ but are often undertaken in captivity or in a laboratory. Examples include gene mixing, captive breeding and translocation.
Please note, the information in this table may not represent the full suite of actions relevant for a species. Some types of actions (e.g. research, monitoring and community engagement) are not currently considered in the Species Forecast database and are therefore not included in the table. Where relevant, these reports will be periodically updated with additional beneficial actions data as more data is collated.
The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Southern Shepherd’s Purse’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.
If this species has poor prospects (i.e. if the species curve above is towards the bottom of the prospects plot), the species may benefit from actions outside the common landscape-scale actions currently included in SMP. Deciding which actions may most benefit this species and where best to undertake them, may require a Specific Needs Assessment.
This plot shows the proportion of Southern Shepherd’s Purse’s 1750 habitat estimated to be remaining after 50 years (y-axis) under different levels of action (bold black line), compared with other species in the same taxonomic group (grey lines) and the median of that taxon group (dashed line), according to the SMP ranking.
The x-axis shows the level of action required to achieve the corresponding proportion of 1750 habitat in 50 years, and assumes actions are undertaken according to the SMP Integrated Cost-effectiveness ranking. For example, 90 on the x-axis corresponds to the Top 10% of actions in the SMP outputs.
The median proportion of 1750 habitat in 50 years for all Plants in SMP is also shown for comparison. Importantly, this figure is based only on data in SMP, so there may be actions not currently considered by SMP that would contribute further to conserving Southern Shepherd’s Purse.
Species that have very flat lines do not benefit much from actions in SMP, compared with species with lines that have steep gradients. Species with curves close to the bottom of the figure have relatively little of their 1750 habitat remaining, compared to species with curves higher up on the figure. Species with flat lines and/or lines close to the bottom of the figure are strong candidates for considering actions not currently in SMP and therefore should be evaluated using Specific Needs.
For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:
These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.
The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).
As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.
For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
### References * DEPI (2014). Advisory list of
rare or threatened plants in Victoria - 2014. Department of Environment
and Primary Industries, Melbourne. * DSE (2004). Flora and Fauna
Guarantee Action Statement 102 - Southern Shepherd’s Purse Ballantinia
antipoda. Department of Sustainability and Environment. Retrieved from:
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/CA256F310024B628/0/964000FA295DBE07CA2570ED0000FAF0/$File/102+ballantinia+antipoda+2000.pdf.
* Foreman, P.W. (2011). Review of Ballantinia antipoda (F.
Muell.) E.A. Shaw (Southern Shepherd’s Purse) Brassicaceae
Recovery Plan (EPBC Act 1999) and Action Statement (FFG Act 1988)
implementation. Report prepared by Blue Devil Consulting for the
Department of Sustainability and Environment, Bendigo. * Foreman, P.W.
(2012). Population census of South Shepherds Purse (Ballantinia
antipoda) at Mount Alexander Regional Park (MARP) in spring 2011.
Report prepared by Blue Devil Consulting for the Department of
Sustainability and Environment, Bendigo. * Foreman, P.W. (2014).
Population census of South Shepherds Purse (Ballantinia antipoda)
at Mount Alexander Regional Park (MARP) in Winter 2013. Report prepared
by Blue Devil Consulting for the Department of Environment and Primary
Industries, Bendigo. * Foreman, P. W. (2016). Assessment of candidate
sites in the Langi Ghiran and Mount Cole regions - Desktop assessment
and field assessment of priority sites. Moving Ballantinia antipoda
(Southern Shepherd’s Purse) to new heights - the search for future
reintroduction sites. Unpublished report prepared for Department of
Environment, Land, Water and Planning by Blue Devil Consulting,
Castlemaine. * Leigh, J., Boden, R., and Briggs, J. (1984). Extinct and
Endangered Plants of Australia. The MacMillan Company of Australia P/L,
South Melbourne. * Nevill, G.R. and M. Camilleri (2010). National
Recovery Plan for Southern Shepherd’s Purse (Ballantinia
antipoda). East Melbourne, Victoria: Department of Sustainability
and Environment. Retrieved from:
http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/publications/recovery/ballantinia-antipoda.html.
* SAC (1995). Flora and Fauna Guarantee Scientific Advisory Committee:
Final Recommendation on a Nomination for Listing. Nomination No. 342
Ballantinia antipoda Department of Environment and Primary
Industries, Victoria. * Seidel, J.E. (2004). Ecology of the Endangered
Southern Shepherd’s Purse Ballantinia antipoda (Brassicaceae) and
the associated Moss Mat Community on Mount Alexander, Victoria.
Unpublished Applied Science Honours thesis at the University of
Ballarat, Mount Helen.