Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 05 February, 2024

A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.

The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.

Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.

For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.


Species Overview

Taxon ID 502106
Scientific name Maireana oppositifolia
Common name Heathy Bluebush
Group Dicotyledons
FFG status Endangered
EPBC status
Heathy Bluebush (Image Source: Atlas of Living Australia)

Heathy Bluebush (Image Source: Atlas of Living Australia)


Species description

Description and life history

Fairly dense, much-branched shrub to c. 80 cm high and diam.; younger branches closely covered with short woolly hairs. Leaves opposite or subopposite, ovate, mostly 2-3 mm long, broadly keeled on lower surface, flat or concave above, covered in short, white, silky hairs when young, but becoming glabrous. Flowers bisexual, pubescent on perianth lobes, otherwise glabrous. Fruiting perianth c. 7 mm diam., flat or convex at apex; tube 1.5-2 mm diam., thin-walled, obconical, not or barely ribbed below wings; wings 5, 3 spreading c. horizontally, 2 smaller and suberect, all fan-shaped, papery and dark-veined; radicular slit not apparent. The taxon fruits mainly from February to March (VicFlora 2019).

Distribution

In Victoria, the taxon is confined to the far north-west where it is rather rare (Pink and Hattah Lakes, Raak Plain, Towan Plain) (VicFlora 2019).

Habitat

The Victorian habitat range of the taxon is considered to be largely confined to saline discharge complexes named as ‘Boinka’ which includes salt pan, Copi rises and plains, and margins where salt pan meets aeolian landscapes of Woorinen Formation or Lowan Formation derivation. Some sites e.g. Lakes Little Hattah and Hattah were recorded within fenced plot for Lepidium monoplocoides, which is a sub saline depression. The Hattah subpopulation is atypical in occupying a perched water table, resulting from a duplex soil profile with grey clay of Coonambidgal Formation. It potentially overlies a heavier clay horizon, therefore the ground water at the Hattah sites is not saline like other sites, they are sub saline only.

Genetic Risk Index

This table contains information on the genetic health of Heathy Bluebush, informed by recent work conducted by Monash University and cesar Pty Ltd (Kriesner et al. 2019; Kriesner and Weeks 2020). The project undertook genetic risk assessments of ~1,100 species of flora and fauna found in Victoria and generated a large database of available genetic and demographic data for these species. A framework was developed for combining these parameters into a Genetic Risk Index that classified species broadly into ‘Low’, ‘Moderate’, ‘High’, ‘Very High’ and ‘Uncertain’ risk categories. The Genetic Risk Index will continue to undergo refinement and validation to provide further insight into the genetic health of species in Victoria.

Total Australian population size Greater than 10,000 individuals
Australian distribution Most of the population occurs outside of Victoria
Dispersal capacity Modest: ~3.2km
Reproductive mode Sexual: species reproduces sexually via male and female gametes
Average generation time Perennial: longer-lived than annuals, but further estimate is not readily available
Victorian population trend since ~1975 Population has been relatively stable
Inbreeding evidence Not assessed
Genetic diversity Not assessed
Genetic rescue potential Uncertain
Genetic Risk Index Moderate


Species maps

Habitat Distribution Model

The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Heathy Bluebush in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.

No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.


Species Forecast

No Species Forecast data is available because Heathy Bluebush is not yet included in our decision-support tools.

About Species Forecast

A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.

Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.

As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.

We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.


Potential actions for species recovery

No Species Forecast data is available because Heathy Bluebush is not yet included in our decision-support tools.


Species prospects in SMP

The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Heathy Bluebush’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.

No Species Prospects figure is available becuase Heathy Bluebush is not yet included in SMP.


How to get further information and provide feedback

For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:

These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.

The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).

As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.

For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.


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