Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 05 February, 2024
A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.
The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.
Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.
For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
| Taxon ID | 504491 |
| Scientific name | Eucalyptus globulus subsp. globulus |
| Common name | Southern Blue-gum |
| Group | Dicotyledons |
| FFG status | Endangered |
| EPBC status |
The taxon is a tree to 70 m tall; bark smooth, apart from base which has persistent slabs, shedding in large strips and slabs, yellowish or grey. Juvenile leaves sessile, opposite for many pairs on conspicuously winged stems, elliptic to ovate, to 15 cm long, 10.5 cm wide, glaucous; adult leaves petiolate, alternate, falcate or lanceolate, 15-30 cm long, 1.7-3 cm wide, concolorous, glossy, green to dark green; reticulation moderately dense, with numerous, mostly intersectional oil glands. Inflorescences axillary, unbranched; 1-flowered; buds single, sessile, to 2.3 cm long, 1.8 cm diameter, hypanthium obconical; operculum flattened, prominently umbonate, very warty, glaucous or green, scar present; stamens inflexed; anthers cuneate; ovules in (6)8 vertical rows; flowers white. Fruit to 2 cm long, 2.4 cm diameter, sessile or pedicellate, obconical to hemispherical; disc flat to annular; valves 4 or 5, about rim level, partly covered by lobes of disc; seed black-brown, flattened-ellipsoid, shallowly reticulate, hilum ventral. The taxon flowers from November to December (VicFlora, 2019).
Recent studies of variation in Southern Blue-gums suggest that populations of typical subsp. globulus occur in Victoria only in the area south of the Strzelecki Range, e.g., Port Franklin, Wilsons Promontory, and that other populations in South Gippsland and the Otway Ranges probably represent intergrades between subsp. globulus and subsp. pseudoglobulus. Also Tasmania. The natural distribution of subsp. globulus, in Victoria, has undoubtedly been confused by forestry plantings last century (VicFlora, 2019). The taxon intergrades with subsp. pseudoglobulus, and populations with 1- and 3-flowered trees in southern Gippsland and the Otway Ranges may be impossible to attribute definitely to either subspecies (VicFlora, 2016). Indigenous occurrences of the taxon are reliably recorded also for French Island and Phillip Island in Western Port Bay. All other records of the taxon throughout Victoria, particularly in the Melbourne and Ballarat regions, but extending as far as Hamilton, Bendigo and the La Trobe Valley, are either plantings, garden escapes or wildings from Tasmanian Blue-gum plantations.
The taxon occurs in wet forests on a range of aspects, often in association with Eucalyptus regnans or E. cypellocarpa.
No genetic risk information is currently available.
The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Southern Blue-gum in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.
No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.
No Species Forecast data is available because Southern Blue-gum is not yet included in our decision-support tools.
A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.
Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.
As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.
We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.
No Species Forecast data is available because Southern Blue-gum is not yet included in our decision-support tools.
The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Southern Blue-gum’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.
No Species Prospects figure is available becuase Southern Blue-gum is not yet included in SMP.
For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:
These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.
The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).
As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.
For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
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