Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 18 July, 2024
A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.
The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.
Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.
For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
| Taxon ID | 506489 |
| Scientific name | Orthotrichum cupulatum var. cupulatum |
| Common name | Limestone Bristle-moss |
| Group | Mosses |
| FFG status | Critically Endangered |
| EPBC status |
Orthotrichum cupulatum is a lithophytic (rarely epiphytic) moss. It is monoicous (autoicous) and is commonly fertile.
The taxon is very rare in Victoria, and perhaps throughout its entire range. The taxon is known from only two localities, both in the Buchan River district of the Alpine National Park (Lewinsky 1984, Meagher 2009, AVH records). Also NSW, ACT, New Zealand.
At the known Victorian sites the subpopulations appear to be restricted to a few small rock outcrops (D. Meagher pers. obs. January 2002; D. Ohlsen, pers. obs. 2019). It grows on calcareous rock (Lewinsky 1984) and is also rarely epiphytic (Meagher 2005). In Australia it is confined to limestone regions. Although it can tolerate large variations in temperature, it requires relatively humid conditions (i.e. along the edge of Limestone Creek and the riparian vegetatin of Buchan River) and is not found in very dry habitats (Lewinsky-Haaspaari and Ramsay 2006).
No genetic risk information is currently available.
The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Limestone Bristle-moss in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.
No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.
No Species Forecast data is available because Limestone Bristle-moss is not yet included in our decision-support tools.
A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.
Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.
As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.
We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.
No Species Forecast data is available because Limestone Bristle-moss is not yet included in our decision-support tools.
The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Limestone Bristle-moss’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.
No Species Prospects figure is available becuase Limestone Bristle-moss is not yet included in SMP.
For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:
These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.
The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).
As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.
For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
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