Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 01 February, 2024

A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.

The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.

Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.

For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.


Species Overview

Taxon ID 60618
Scientific name Lichenostomus melanops cassidix
Common name Helmeted Honeyeater
Group Passerine birds
FFG status Critically Endangered
EPBC status Critically Endangered
Helmeted Honeyeater (Image Source: Museums Victoria)

Helmeted Honeyeater (Image Source: Museums Victoria)


Species description

Description and life history

NA

Distribution

NA

Habitat

NA

Genetic Risk Index

No genetic risk information is currently available.


Species maps

Habitat Distribution Model

The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Helmeted Honeyeater in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.

No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.


Species Forecast

Based on modelling data, Helmeted Honeyeater has an likelihood of being present of 89% in 50 years time with the management actions currently implemented on the ground. See the Potential actions for recovery table below for more details on these actions.

About Species Forecast

A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.

Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.

As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.

We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.


Potential actions for species recovery

Species Forecast data has been integrated to determine which specific actions are contributing, or have the potential to contribute, to species persistence. Note: Only management activities that would contribute at least 1% Change in Suitable Habitat have been included in this table

Action Stream Action Predicted CSH (ha) from most cost-effective actions Predicted Forecast from most cost-effective actions Predicted CSH (ha) from implemented actions Predicted Forecast from implemented actions
Landscape Control Cats & Control Foxes 261 89.11 NA NA
Landscape Control Foxes NA NA 145 88.77

This table includes information on potential actions for species recovery that have been split into three different action groupings, or streams:

Please note, the information in this table may not represent the full suite of actions relevant for a species. Some types of actions (e.g. research, monitoring and community engagement) are not currently considered in the Species Forecast database and are therefore not included in the table. Where relevant, these reports will be periodically updated with additional beneficial actions data as more data is collated.


Species prospects in SMP

The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Helmeted Honeyeater’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.

If this species has poor prospects (i.e. if the species curve above is towards the bottom of the prospects plot), the species may benefit from actions outside the common landscape-scale actions currently included in SMP. Deciding which actions may most benefit this species and where best to undertake them, may require a Specific Needs Assessment.


How to get further information and provide feedback

For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:

These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.

The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).

As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.

For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.


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