Strategic Management Prospects v4.0 Species Forecast Report created on 01 February, 2024
A Species Forecast Report is a summary of currently available information, the predicted 50-year outlook for the species, and potential pathways to recovery through species-specific and landscape-scale actions.
The report collates data from a range of sources including the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas, Strategic Management Prospects (SMP), Specific Needs Assessments, Threatened Species Action Statements, the Genetic Risk Index, and the IUCN Common Assessment Method.
Species Forecast Reports are intended to be used in conjunction with SMP and other spatial outputs in NatureKit, and Action Statements where relevant.
For more information on Species Forecast Reports, SMP and other biodiversity decision support tools, including user guides, visit Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
| Taxon ID | 62968 |
| Scientific name | Morelia spilota spilota |
| Common name | Diamond Python |
| Group | Reptiles |
| FFG status | Critically Endangered |
| EPBC status |
From Robertson and Coventry (2019): Diamond Pythons are normally black above, with yellow or cream dots on each scale, and series of sometimes regular, small, dark-edged, yellow or cream patches on the back. This subspecies is yellow below, with numerous small black patches. There is a distinct ‘spur’ on either side of the vent, these being the last vestiges of hindlimbs. Diamond Pythons grow to a total length of about three metres. The Diamond Python can be active at quite low temperatures, occasionally being seen basking on sunny winter days. Home ranges to over 120 hectares have been recorded. Sheltering in hollow logs, and dense vegetation, it has little protection from the frequent fires prevalent in Gippsland - rock outcrops may be important refugia. Its diet consists mainly of small to medium-sized warm-blooded prey, with possums, bandicoots and water rat recorded in Victoria - some reptiles and frogs are eaten as well. Male combat does not occur, although aggregations of several individuals have been seen at mating time. Mating occurs in early spring, with females laying 9 to 54 (but typically less than 30, Greer 1997) eggs in late spring or summer, then brooding the clutch, until hatching after six to ten weeks.
The Diamond Python in Victoria is restricted to the warm temperate zone south of the Great Dividing Range in far East Gippsland.
The taxon occurs in Dry Sclerophyll Forest, Heathland, Banksia Woodland and Coastal Scrub ecosystems (Robertson and Coventry 2019).
This table contains information on the genetic health of Diamond Python, informed by recent work conducted by Monash University and cesar Pty Ltd (Kriesner et al. 2019; Kriesner and Weeks 2020). The project undertook genetic risk assessments of ~1,100 species of flora and fauna found in Victoria and generated a large database of available genetic and demographic data for these species. A framework was developed for combining these parameters into a Genetic Risk Index that classified species broadly into ‘Low’, ‘Moderate’, ‘High’, ‘Very High’ and ‘Uncertain’ risk categories. The Genetic Risk Index will continue to undergo refinement and validation to provide further insight into the genetic health of species in Victoria.
| Total Australian population size | 50 - 500 individuals |
| Australian distribution | Population is roughly shared between Victoria and a neighbouring state |
| Dispersal capacity | Modest: ~3.2km |
| Reproductive mode | Sexual: species reproduces sexually via male and female gametes |
| Average generation time | One generation every 6 - 10 years |
| Victorian population trend since ~1975 | Population has significantly decreased |
| Inbreeding evidence | Not assessed |
| Genetic diversity | Not assessed |
| Genetic rescue potential | Uncertain |
| Genetic Risk Index | Very high |
The Habitat Distribution Model (HDM) layer shows the modelled distribution of habitat for Diamond Python in Victoria. Red shading indicates areas of habitat with relatively higher suitability, compared with yellow shaded areas. HDMs are developed by combining Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA) occurrence records for the species with a range of environmental variables to predict where the most suitable habitat for the species is in Victoria. Species may not always occupy areas of suitable habitat. Threatening processes (prior or ongoing) and disturbance regimes (e.g. fire, timber harvesting) may stop species from occupying otherwise suitable habitat for periods of time. Management actions often focus on currently occupied areas, however management of unoccupied areas can also be important to allow populations to re-establish.
No Habitat Distrabution Model is currently available.
Based on modelling data, Diamond Python has an likelihood of being present of 42% in 50 years time with the management actions currently implemented on the ground. See the Potential actions for recovery table below for more details on these actions.
A Species Forecast is the estimated likelihood of a species being present in 50 years time. The data for Species Forecasts is drawn from DEECA’s decision support tools, Strategic Management Prospects and Specific Needs Assessments.
Many species benefit from the management of widespread threats, such as weeds and pests, and the benefit of these landscape-scale actions to ~4,200 species is modelled in Strategic Management Prospects. In addition to landscape-scale actions, some species also need actions that improve or protect habitat at certain sites, such as nest boxes or hollow logs, or actions to improve certain populations, such as gene mixing or translocation.
As part of a continuous improvement program for our decision-support tools, we are working to expand the scope of actions modelled in Strategic Management Prospects, and to build the dataset of species benefits from location-specific and population-specific actions.
We can use this data to consider how different actions may benefit a species and examine how different types of on-ground management may contribute to a species’ recovery in 50 years, to develop a Species Forecast.
Species Forecast data has been integrated to determine which specific actions are contributing, or have the potential to contribute, to species persistence. Note: Only management activities that would contribute at least 1% Change in Suitable Habitat have been included in this table
| Action Stream | Action | Predicted CSH (ha) from most cost-effective actions | Predicted Forecast from most cost-effective actions | Predicted CSH (ha) from implemented actions | Predicted Forecast from implemented actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landscape | Control Cats | 1532 | 41.77 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Cats & Control Foxes | 3536 | 43.99 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Cats & Control Foxes & Control Pigs | 3210 | 43.65 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Cats & Control Foxes & Control Rabbits | 231 | 40.11 | NA | NA |
| Landscape | Control Deer | 832 | 40.90 | 505 | 40.48 |
| Landscape | Control Foxes | 2117 | 42.46 | 1338 | 41.53 |
| Landscape | Control Pigs | 498 | 40.47 | 162 | 40.02 |
This table includes information on potential actions for species recovery that have been split into three different action groupings, or streams:
Landscape actions are actions that are undertaken ‘in the wild’ to benefit multiple species. These actions are often undertaken over large areas. Examples include control of pests, weed control, fire management and revegetation.Use SMP in NatureKit to explore locations where landscape actions will be most beneficial. SMP can help you plan the right actions in the right locations to benefit this species, and other species which can also benefit from the same actions in those locations.
Location actions are actions that are also undertaken ‘in the wild’ but are targeted at particular sites to improve the habitat for selected species. Examples include creation of artificial hollows and supplementary planting of food source plants.
Population actions are actions that are targeted toward the population(s) of a particular species to increase their numbers. These actions may be undertaken ‘in the wild’ but are often undertaken in captivity or in a laboratory. Examples include gene mixing, captive breeding and translocation.
Please note, the information in this table may not represent the full suite of actions relevant for a species. Some types of actions (e.g. research, monitoring and community engagement) are not currently considered in the Species Forecast database and are therefore not included in the table. Where relevant, these reports will be periodically updated with additional beneficial actions data as more data is collated.
The benefit data in SMP can be used to consider what the Diamond Python’s prospects are if the landscape scale management actions in SMP are implemented.
If this species has poor prospects (i.e. if the species curve above is towards the bottom of the prospects plot), the species may benefit from actions outside the common landscape-scale actions currently included in SMP. Deciding which actions may most benefit this species and where best to undertake them, may require a Specific Needs Assessment.
This plot shows the proportion of Diamond Python’s 1750 habitat estimated to be remaining after 50 years (y-axis) under different levels of action (bold black line), compared with other species in the same taxonomic group (grey lines) and the median of that taxon group (dashed line), according to the SMP ranking.
The x-axis shows the level of action required to achieve the corresponding proportion of 1750 habitat in 50 years, and assumes actions are undertaken according to the SMP Integrated Cost-effectiveness ranking. For example, 90 on the x-axis corresponds to the Top 10% of actions in the SMP outputs.
The median proportion of 1750 habitat in 50 years for all Reptiles in SMP is also shown for comparison. Importantly, this figure is based only on data in SMP, so there may be actions not currently considered by SMP that would contribute further to conserving Diamond Python.
Species that have very flat lines do not benefit much from actions in SMP, compared with species with lines that have steep gradients. Species with curves close to the bottom of the figure have relatively little of their 1750 habitat remaining, compared to species with curves higher up on the figure. Species with flat lines and/or lines close to the bottom of the figure are strong candidates for considering actions not currently in SMP and therefore should be evaluated using Specific Needs.
For more information on the decision support tools, products and underlying data used in this report, and how the data is collected and developed into products, please visit the following links:
These links include information on how to provide data and feedback into these products.
The Species Forecast Reports will be updated periodically to reflect changes and improvements in the products and tools that inform them (e.g., following updates to SMP).
As the data contained in Species Forecast Reports is drawn from multi-species datasets, it is not currently possible to incorporate species-specific information or feedback directly.
For help or further information get in touch by visiting Choosing actions for nature webpage on the DEECA website.
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of Threatened Vertebrate Fauna in Victoria - 2013. Department of
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Chipping Norton. * Harlow, P. and Grigg, G. (1984). Shivering
thermogenesis in the brooding diamond python, Python spilotes
spilotes . Copeaia 1984(4): 959-965. * Kriesner, P., Weeks,
A.R., Razeng, E. and Sunnucks, P. (2019). Assessing genetic risks to
Victorian flora and fauna. A report to the Department of Environment,
Land, Water and Planning, Victoria. cesar Pty Ltd and Monash University.
* Kriesner, P. and Weeks, A.R. (2020). Genetic risks to Victorian
biodiversity following the 2019/20 bush fire emergency. A report to the
Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria. cesar Pty
Ltd. * Robertson, P. and Coventry, A. J. (2019). Reptiles of
Victoria: a Guide to Identification and Ecology. CSIRO Publishing.
Clayton South. * SAC (1993). Flora and Fauna Guarantee Scientific
Advisory Committee: Final Recommendation on a Nomination for Listing.
Nomination No. 252 Morelia spilota. * Slip, D. and Shine, R.
(1988). The reproductive biology and mating system of diamond pythons,
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